The Wrestling Genius: Royal Rumble Vegas Odds and Picks

Here we go the bring it home column just before the second best pay per view of the year the Royal Rumble. I’ll forgo my question and answer format for my unique picks column. Not a lot of matches and I am doing this before SmackDown so there is a chance a match will be added that won’t be in the column, just assume I’d get that match correct.

Here is how I do my picks for those unfamiliar with my process. I place fake money lines Vegas style and tell how I’m betting and why. Not sure what money line is. That’s okay I’ll explain it as best I can.

New York Giants+120
New England Patriots -130

In this instance, the Patriots are the favored team, as signified by the – (minus) written in front of the 130, while the Giants are the underdogs, as designated by the + (plus) in front of the 120.

What these numbers mean is that those wishing to bet on the favorite, the Patriots, will have to risk $130 to win $100, while those wanting to wager on the underdog, the Giants, will risk $100 to win $120. Got it? Good, moving on.

John Cena (+150) vs. Kane (-130)

Clearly Vegas is buying that Kane has gotten into John Cena’s head and has taken him off his game. The belief here is that Kane has broken Cena’s best bro Ryder and has finally gotten Cena to tap into his hateful side. By doing this Kane hopes to accomplish…..well I don’t know what yet. Maybe he’s trying to be like The Joker in The Dark Knight and prove that even someone as brave and heroic as Harvey Dent (John Cena) can be corrupted. Be made to do violent things thus breaking the hearts of Gotham (WWE kid Universe). So, why is Kane favored then? My guess is Vegas thinks Cena and his new found hate will help him up the violence but will ultimately lead him to make mistakes. I like this theory and I think I’m going to bet on the favorite here, but I could easily see this going Cena’s way if he can channel the anger properly.

KANE over Cena

World Heavyweight Title Match: Daniel Bryan (+300) vs. Mark Henry (+120) vs. The Big Show (-140)

Vegas really doesn’t see the current champion walking out of the cage as champion and history certainly agrees. Three way matches leave the champion at a serious disadvantage and throw in that he is outweighed by a combined +700 pounds it doesn’t look good for Bryan. Both Henry and Show have a serious beef with Bryan and the way he’s gone about defending his title. However, they both have a history of violence towards each other. At +300 Bryan is a tempting bet. He can climb better than the other two and lately he has shown a knack for weaseling his way out with the title. With that said I just don’t see how he could win this match. Two giants, David had only one Goliath to fight and that wasn’t in a steel cage. Show can beat Henry, he did that the last time they were in a ring together. I think I have my pick and it’s only because the odds are too tempting.

DANIEL BRYAN over Big Show and Mark Henry

WWE World Title Match: CM Punk (+220) vs. Dolph Ziggler (-150)

Another champion with the odds against him. Vegas must not believe that John Laurinaitis will keep his word and not screw CM Punk over. Otherwise there is no way Punk isn’t the one favored in this match. As good as Ziggler is and he is very very good he just isn’t as good as Punk on a level playing field…yet. However, this most certainly is not a level playing field thanks to John Laurinaitis and his obvious bias against Punk. Even if he calls it down the middle there is a very real chance that just having him in the ring will be a huge distraction for Punk. Is Punk good enough to beat both Ziggler and a meddling John Laurinaitis? Vegas doesn’t think so, but I do.

CM PUNK over Dolph Ziggler

Now on to the main event, now I’m going to have more than 30 names here because I don’t know for sure who will be in it. Each one will have odds next to their names and at the bottom I’ll tell you who I think will win.

Royal Rumble Match:

Alex Riley (+250)

Brodus Clay (+120)

Chris Jericho (-150)

Curt Hawkins(+250)

David Otunga (+250)

Epico (+250)

Jack Swagger (+120)

JTG (+250)

Kofi Kingston (+250)

Mason Ryan (+120)

Michael McGillicutty (+250)

Mick Foley (+120)

The Miz (+120)

Primo (+250)

Rey Mysterio (+120)

R-Truth (+120)

Santino Marella (+250)

Triple H (+120)

Tyler Reks (+250)

Christian (+120)

Cody Rhodes (+120)

Drew McIntyre (+250)

Ezekiel Jackson (+250)

Heath Slater (+250)

Hornswoggle (+5000)

Hunico (+250)

Jey Uso (+250)

Jimmy Uso (+250)

Jinder Mahal (+250)

Johnny Curtis (+250)

Justin Gabriel (+250)

Randy Orton (+120)
Sheamus (-150)

Ted DiBiase (+250)

Trent Barreta (+250)

Tyson Kidd (+250)

Undertaker (-120)

Wade Barrett (-175)

Yoshi Tatsu (+250)
The Field (-300) *this bet indicates a bet for everyone except those favored, i.e. Undertaker, Jericho, Wade Barrett, and Sheamus*

If you noticed Vegas does give odds to Rey Mysterio, Randy Orton, Christian, HHH, and Undertaker. Vegas must believe even a little bit that they’ll return to give them a money line. I think it’ll be a combination of them, not all of them will return but I can guarantee at least two on that list will return. Now, Vegas gives the odds on favorite as Wade Barrett and why not? Wade and his Barrett Barrage have run through some pretty big names as of late. The next grouping of favorites, Sheamus, Jericho, and Undertaker are all viable winners of the event, you know if Taker even shows up. My money if this was real would be on the field, but I am taking a real shot here and saying my money is Chris Jericho. The savvy veteran will find a way to win the Rumble and go on to face CM Punk at WrestleMania. Of course as we have seen over and over again you just don’t know who is going to win The Rumble, that’s why we love the damn thing so much.

Well that’s all for me this week, thanks again for reading and as always if you want to get a hold of me to call me an idiot, tell me I’m smart, or ask a question you can do so by following me on twitter @JaredGebhardt or via email . You can also check out my entertainment column at

Jared Gebhardt